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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">concconc</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Железобетонные конструкции</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Reinforced concrete structures</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2949-1622</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2949-1614</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Национальный исследовательский Московский государственный строительный университет</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">concconc-4</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ТЕОРИЯ БЕТОНА И ЖЕЛЕЗОБЕТОНА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>THEORY OF CONCRETE AND REINFORCED CONCRETE</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Методология анализа и оценки надежности состояния и прогнозирование срока службы железобетонных конструкций</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Methodology for the Analysis and Assessment of the Reliability of the State and Prediction the Service Life of Reinforced Concrete Structures</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0569-4788</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Тамразян</surname><given-names>А. Г.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Tamrazian</surname><given-names>A. G.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Ашот Георгиевич Тамразян, чл.-корр. РААСН, д-р техн. наук, профессор, заведующий кафедрой</p><p>Scopus: 55975413900, ResearcherID: T-1253-2017</p><p>129337, г. Москва, Ярославское шоссе, д. 26</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Ashot G. Tamrazyan, Corresponding member of RAACS, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, Неad of the Department of Reinforced Concrete and Masonry Structures</p><p>Scopus: 55975413900, ResearcherID: T-1253-2017</p><p>26 Yaroslavskoeshosse, Moscow, 129337</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">tamrazian@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru">Национальный исследовательский Московский государственный строительный университет (НИУ МГСУ)<country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">Moscow State University of Civil Engineering (National Research University) (MGSU)<country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2023</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>15</day><month>01</month><year>2023</year></pub-date><volume>1</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>5</fpage><lpage>18</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Тамразян А.Г., 2023</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2023</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Тамразян А.Г.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Tamrazian A.G.</copyright-holder><license license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.g-b-k.ru/jour/article/view/4">https://www.g-b-k.ru/jour/article/view/4</self-uri><abstract><p>Железобетонные конструкции могут подвергаться агрессивному воздействию окружающей среды, что приводит к снижению их несущей способности в течение срока службы. Если оценка безопасности таких конструкций должна быть выполнена для возможности продолжения эксплуатации, основной задачей было бы обеспечение их способности выдерживать будущие экстремальные нагрузки в течение предполагаемого срока службы с уровнем надежности, достаточный для безопасности.</p><p>В настоящее время не существует методологий для проведения такой оценки.</p><p>Настоящая методология предлагается для облегчения количественных оценок текущей и будущей конструктивной надежности и несущей способности железобетонных конструкций. Эта методология учитывает случайный характер прошлых и будущих нагрузок, а также деградацию в результате негативных факторов окружающей среды.</p><p>Оценка надежности и износа железобетонных конструкций, зависящая от времени, обеспечивает основу для определения продолжительности безопасной эксплуатации.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Reinforced concrete structures can be exposed to aggressive environmental influences, which leads to a decrease in their bearing capacity during their service life. If a safety assessment of such structures is to be carried out in order to be able to continue in service, the main challenge would be to ensure that they can withstand future extreme loads over their intended lifetime with a level of reliability sufficient for safety.</p><p>There are currently no methodologies for such an assessment.</p><p>This methodology is proposed to facilitate quantitative assessments of the current and future structural reliability and load-bearing capacity of reinforced concrete structures. This methodology takes into account the random nature of past and future pressures, as well as degradation as a result of negative environmental factors.</p><p>The time-dependent reliability and deterioration assessment of reinforced concrete structures provides the basis for determining the duration of safe operation.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>железобетонные конструкции</kwd><kwd>несущая способность</kwd><kwd>надежность</kwd><kwd>вероятность</kwd><kwd>износ</kwd><kwd>старение</kwd><kwd>механизм повреждений</kwd><kwd>срок службы</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>reinforced concrete structures</kwd><kwd>bearing capacity</kwd><kwd>reliability</kwd><kwd>probability</kwd><kwd>deterioration</kwd><kwd>aging</kwd><kwd>damage mechanism</kwd><kwd>service life</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Vora J.P. et al. 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